For Asian equity markets, we hold a constructive outlook for the second half of this year, as the political and economic environment is more conducive towards earnings growth and is generally less vulnerable to global volatility.
Policies continue to coalesce around a pro-economic agenda, evident with supply side reforms in China, goods and service tax (GST) implementation in India, and improving corporate governance in South Korea. Similarly to developed market central banks, the focus on deleveraging and reducing systemic risk will be a major theme for the remainder of the year, in our view. Positive real interest rates, currency stabilization, and healthy current account levels suggest a reduced onus to shadow the Fed's movements, but other macro-prudential measures that buttress the medium and longer-term investment cycles will remain.
Our investment outlook is anchored around China due to better domestic economic data and RMB stabilization. This is likely to allow the People’s Bank of China to maintain interbank liquidity while reducing the use of irregular leverage and financial instruments. The A-share inclusion into the MSCI Emerging Market Index is not seen as being materially significantly in the near-term, but more symbolically critical in our view. The optimism lies in the potential medium and longer term given the potential size China would constitute in the benchmark index as well as greater alignment of China with international accessibility and trading standards. Key events later this year include the 19th Party Congress where President Xi looks to maintain leadership control, suggesting that many already implemented reform policies will remain unchanged.
India begins the second half with the implementation of its GST programme, which aims to replace a tangle of local duties and levies into a uniformed tax structure. Economic momentum is likely to remain on the soft side due to uncertainties over the new regime while the impact of demonetization from late 2016 is still being felt. Prime Minister Modi has been able to maintain strong approval ratings, as the general public acknowledges the perennial benefits over the temporary inconvenience. That patience will again be tested amid the GST rollout; however, any disruption is likely to be short-lived.
South Korea and Taiwan
Strong trade tailwinds should continue to benefit the North Asian export markets of South Korea and Taiwan. The tech sector will see a renewed product launch cycle, including the iPhone 8, as well as extended semiconductor demand plus DRAM memory from smart initiatives including artificial intelligence and voice recognition technology. South Korean equities have been among the best performing in the region, with investors optimistic that newly elected President Moon and his administration will be able to improve corporate governance and push forward Chaebol reforms while also spurring fiscal spending.
A stable oil price environment supports ASEAN equities, alleviating pressure on fiscal deficits as many Southeast Asian economies look to withdraw legacy public subsidies. State funding reallocation becomes more critical as fading agriculture and commodity prices place the onus on public spending for much needed infrastructure projects. Rising disposable incomes and resilient domestic demand have offset the pullback in private investments, as political uneasiness such as the Jakarta gubernatorial race, the call for martial law in southern Philippines and ongoing constitutional revisions in Thailand have kept private investments on the sidelines. These trends should reverse amid better policy clarity into the second half amid pent up demand. Singapore experienced an unexpected pickup in trade and export data, supporting trend growth in ASEAN amid the slowdown elsewhere, demonstrating the economic diversity of the Southeast Asian nations.
Looking into the second half of the year, Asian equities remain an attractive asset class given growth dynamics and relative valuations. Benign market conditions hold supportive factors to balance volatility from central bank policies, demonstrated by stable economic expansion over the past year when populist and anti-trade rhetoric were at their peak. Foreign exchange reserves and capital adequacy ratios remain at healthy levels and provide sufficient liquidity, paring back actions taken by global central banks.
Christopher Chu - Fund Manager Asian equities - Union Bancaire Privée (UBP)BLOG COMMENTS POWERED BY DISQUS