The UK looks like it has voted to leave the EU. We see protracted political and economic uncertainty, leading to a weaker GBP, pushing inflation up, and a hit to growth. In a referendum recession, we expect easier monetary and fiscal policy.
We’ve seen some favorable headlines from China recently, including better-than-expected industrial activity. But the ‘green shoots’ we see in the Chinese economy are not likely to persist and I expect softness to resume in June or July