ECONOMIES Europe

The UK looks like it has voted to leave the EU. We see protracted political and economic uncertainty, leading to a weaker GBP, pushing inflation up, and a hit to growth. In a referendum recession, we expect easier monetary and fiscal policy.

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ECONOMIES Asia

We’ve seen some favorable headlines from China recently, including better-than-expected industrial activity. But the ‘green shoots’ we see in the Chinese economy are not likely to persist and I expect softness to resume in June or July

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ECONOMIES Asia

It is now a year since we quit the Chinese stock market. The hyper-activity of policy makers has deterred us from returning but recent data flows suggest it is time to take another look.

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ECONOMIES Asia

Chinese markets had a weak start to the year in line with the sell-off in most global risk assets in January as investors focused on: the weak oil price, the future trajectory of US interest rates and, close to home, policy confusion and the uncertainties surrounding the renminbi and capital outflows.

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