MARKETS Commodities

While the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will increase rates this year, inflation will remain stubbornly high, maintaining a low real rate environment. Gold prices could rise 8% in the first half of the year, aided by a weaker US Dollar (USD). However, USD strengthening in the second half of the year and subdued enthusiasm for the metal in the futures market could drive a sell-off, with gold ending the year at US$1230/oz, just 2.5% higher than today.

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