Since Theresa May set out plans to invoke Article 50 at the end of March, we have witnessed a significant weakening of the pound against both the dollar and the euro. The pound’s weakness is further exacerbated by the fact we have yet to see any significant weakness in the Eurozone economy or trade.
Recent comments by Saudi Arabia and Russia point to a greater probability of a production cut, although higher production from Libya, Nigeria and Iraq are reducing the odds of such a deal rebalancing the oil market in 2017.
Gold has dropped sharply over the past month, from c.$1,350/oz to c.$1,250/oz, with the majority of the move lower occurring on Tuesday of this week, following hawkish comments by Fed officials (Lacker in particular) and a subsequent break of the psychologically and technically important $1,300/oz level (N.B. the next important technical level is $1,248/oz – a 1.618 extension target from the Aug. 2 high).