When it comes to political risks, one stereotypically thinks of conflicts in emerging or frontier markets—wars in the Middle East; military coups, regime changes or territorial disputes in Asia and Africa; or election turmoil in Latin America. However, this perception no longer holds true, and the trend is shifting.
Italy's social security reform efforts indicate significant progress toward alleviating risks to the long-term sustainability of public finances due to population aging. Yet, we expect that the country's budgetary outlook will remain challenged, given the modest near-term economic growth outlook and the absence of a resolute reduction in the budget deficit and government debt.
Following the UK referendum, European insurance stocks have fallen indiscriminately – with little differentiation around asset gearing, beta, business models, earnings trajectory, solvency levels, capital structures, currency exposures, and idiosyncratic risks.